Oregon has been very blue for a very long time,” said Rebecca Tweed, a Republican strategist in the state.
“Had she not run, it wouldn’t have been such a competitive race. Strategists and politics watchers, however, suggested that Johnson’s bid has changed everything for Kotek. (Kotek supports the gun control measures, while her two opponents do not). The ballot asks voters to decide whether to ban magazines that hold more than 10 rounds and that would require criminal background checks for most gun purchases. Wade (Drazan is anti-abortion), and gun control, which is an issue on Oregon's November ballot. The Kotek campaign and other Democrats predict that reliably Democratic voters will turn out on abortion, a top midterms concern following the Supreme Court's June decision overturning Roe v.
"It’s a political in-between that really shakes things up.” “She can kind of signal to these people, ‘Even though I’m running as an independent, I’m still kind of a Democrat, and I’m certainly not running as far to the right as Drazan,'" O’Brian said. Johnson, who is both pro-gun rights and pro-abortion rights, appeals to "people who have perhaps lost confidence in Democrats in Oregon amid the public safety issues, but who aren’t at all ready to vote for a Republican,” said Neil O’Brian, a political scientist at the University of Oregon and an expert on the state’s politics. Unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson speaks during a gubernatorial debate in Welches, Ore., on July 29. While Johnson has still polled far below her two major-party competitors, her candidacy has peeled off a large chunk of potential voters from the Democratic candidate in the reliably blue state. Johnson, a well-funded independent who served as a Democratic state lawmaker for two decades before resigning to launch her third-party bid, has framed her candidacy off the pair of flashpoint issues, hammering Kotek with attacks on her record. If elected, Kotek would be one of the first openly lesbian governors in the nation. Kate Brown's approval ratings (she's term-limited) and created an opening for attacks against Kotek, a former state House Speaker. Record-breaking crime and homelessness in the state have helped drive down Democratic Gov. The close race between Democrat Tina Kotek, Republican Christine Drazan and independent Betsy Johnson is the product of several fairly rare dynamics, according to political watchers, strategists, pollsters and all three campaigns.
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